Nov 22, 2025
3 min read
Nope.No. 7 Oregon is closer to No. 2 at home against No. 15 USC, and the Ducks' matchup is good against the Trojans' style.
Week 13 gives us a matchup where both teams run off the runway.USC is No. 15 at 8-2, while Oregon is No. 7 at 9-1.Both need this win like oxygen.
About the game related to UCC The news has come down to a very thin line, if that - continue or look at it closely.Oregon is another loss from running your season.
Two top 15 teams, a tightrope, and we're going to find out who keeps their feet or who cracks under the pressure.
All the to be bet
No.7 Oregon Ducks at No. 15 USC Trojans
Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, CBS
Raina: Oregon -9.5
Money Line: Oregon State (-380), USC (+290)
Over/Under: 59.5 (O -105, U -115)
USC: When there are no roots, everything falls apart
USC looks like a top-tier offense on paper, but key pieces are weak.The Trojans are in the top five in the early success rate at more than 50%, which leads to speed and space, but when they lose the first or second down, the whole structure collapses.Their average distance on third down is more than seven yards, one of the longest among ranked teams.You can't work against a real defense to survive on third and last a lot of times.
That's the contrast.When the Trojans are ahead, the offense hums but when they are not, they become predictable and desperate to play bombs instead of earning them.Oregon is the wrong opponent for that flaw.The Ducks are near the top in early EPA allowed circumstances, which means they'll get the exact drop that USC depends on to stay alive.
Oregon fights at a high level, plays clean and reduces the windows that USC is used to.If the Trojans lose early in Eugene, they are not built to survive long fields, long trips or long situations.Take away the pace of Lincoln Riley's offense and the identity disappears.Oregon can take that away.
Score: USC down 24.5 (-130)
I'd play it at 23.5 but if you can, take the best number.Oregon has the exact defensive profile that gives USC QB Jayden Maiava trouble.He can hit the deep ball -- 19 yards per pass attempt with five scores -- but he's completed barely half of them.Mistakes create stalled drives when defenses can cover vertically.Every Oregon corner is above 80% coverage, which means fewer giveaways on the floor.
The middle area shows that there is a big concern - 6 toivedows and three attempts to try to protect this part of the field, and the highest level in insurance.Short notice is always coming out of USC, but Oregon Tackes is very good (third is good).
The deep ball is a challenge, the midfield is competitive, and the short game is dying to connect.Without a big gain or YAC, USC is allowed to try to run the 12-Play against the defense.
The tournament supports the current total teams for USC at each level.
Providing research
Oregon is 9-3 against ranked teams over the last three seasons, tied with Arizona State for second-best in the FBS.
USC is 3-11 ATS on the road over the last three seasons, worst in the FBS.
The Trojans are 4-1 over the last two seasons, the second-best in the FBS against four teams (5-under).
