Nov 20, 2025
3 min read
The Chiefs are 5-5 after the loss to the Broncos.They are third in the AFC West and have a 55.4% FPI to make the playoffs.Is it time to worry?
Broncos Running Wil Lutz Running Wil Lutz made a 35-yard field goal to win Sunday's game.A year ago, LUTZ connected on that header with a 35-yard field goal.Who can score an improbable offense and put the team in position to win?Broncos fans are eager to get one on their rivals.It's hard to believe you'll beat the leaders until you actually beat them.
What happened next, and not everyone, was the difference between the 2024 owners and the 2025 owners. Last year's team to save him took a 19-17 victory on Lutz's kick.Kansas City set an NFL record 10-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer.This year's team...performed well in single-digit games.After Lutz sent in his kick in the 22-19 victory, the leaders fell to 0-5 in single-digit doubles play in 2025.
Senior leaders are leaders.If there was one thing before the Bills in Week 9, then there was one thing, but once in Week 18 of the last season to build fans at the table, but this was different;Sitting on the AFC in eight abundance, the title image is designed to return to their title.
And then they didn't.AFC title holder Race Eldardy is still in a serious slump, as they trail Denver 5-5 games and lose their cover appearance with the Lightning.We'll probably be very quiet in Kansas City hotels and restaurants for the first time around January in Kansas City cities and restaurants, and the Chiefs aren't calling to scare anyone with the threat of their guts in tough conditions.
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Can it get any worse?Sunday's loss dropped the Chiefs to ninth in the AFC.The three teams currently in the wild card spot, the Bills, Chargers and Jaguars, have one thing in common: beating the Chiefs this season, giving them the ultimate edge.Kansas City is 2-4 in the AFC this season and sits atop the AFC at 8-2.
It seems that it is dangerous that the head of the spirit has no people, and I will make the reason why I do not think that it is different from game to game to game.But the football field of the Soupita (Fpi) brought the head of the family 44.6% Lose the Playoffs after losing the loss of the first day.And although it is easy to dismiss an algorithm and say that they do not understand that these are the leaders of countries, And now, like Patrick Mahomemes & Co. are trying to recover and lose another person, which is like this issue.
I have all kinds of questions about them now, and I think so do you.Can the president come out of this veil?Or are we looking at the wrong type of demographic over the years?
Are bosses broken?
Why doesn't Muhammad fulfill them?
What will actually change in 2025?
Does this happen to the best qbs?
Could they miss the playoffs?
Can they still win it all?
Is the head broken?
Deep breath... no.In fact, there's a difference between the Chiefs going 5-5 this season and 3-1 last season, 15-1 after covering the top seed in the AFC.There is no significant difference between the two groups in terms of the measures we use.
Excluding the Broncos' second game, the 2024 Chiefs won by an average of 6.1 points per game.Through 10 weeks, these 2,025 leaders actually have the best point differential, winning by an average of 7.3 points per event.They lost the next few, but their five wins came by an average of 19 points, including big wins over the Lions and Ravens.
The Pythagorean expectation formula holds the 2024 Chiefs to win 10.2 games in the season and the 2025 Chiefs to win at home.Of course. Where and where these points were, but we know that the point difference is a better precursor of the future lost records than the real loss of heritage.
DVOA, which adjusts for drops, yards, opponents and game situations, does an even better job of contextualizing a team's performance than point differential.Before the Broncos' Week 18 game last season, the Chiefs ranked sixth in DVOA at 21.4%.Although their 2025 number does not yet include Sunday's loss, the Chiefs entered the game.The Broncos are fifth in the league in 2025 DVOA at 25.1%.
The FPI also tries to measure the strength of a team by adjusting for what is and is not important.Last season, the Chiefs finished the regular season ranked sixth in the FPI.Even with a 5-4 record, the Chiefs entered Sunday leading the league in FPI ... and they're still No. 1 after Sunday's loss.
The EPA agrees with the theme here as well.The Chiefs ranked 11th in EPA per game against offense a year ago and are all the way up to third this season.The defense has gone from 15th in EPA per game to 10th.The schedule has been tougher — the Chiefs face the 18th-toughest slate in the league in 2024, and they've faced the fifth-toughest set of opponents so far this season — but it's not enough to account for them going from 15-2 to 5-5 at the season's midpoint.
The difference, of course, is that the Chiefs have always managed to find ways to win those close games in 2024. Back in August, I had the Chiefs on my annual list of teams likely to be rejected, which shouldn't surprise anyone; winning 15 or more games is nearly impossible, and I've been speculating about teams with unsustainable records in one-run games as potential candidates for rejection for quite some time now.
Pickping in that place, spent high environment for it for a temporary measure of it.If the kings wins the shooting every week, or they care about the lower matching games but not true.A difference and every week.Often often
And when we look closer at what happened last season, there are more similarities than we might expect to what we've seen from the Chiefs this season, just with significantly less impressive results.
Why do you feel unrealistics and hits?
The Chiefs were blown out by the Eagles in the Super Bowl, but if the games were to stop in 2024, it seemed like Kansas City had a great offensive ability when it absolutely positively needed it.It's a trait we usually associate with the best quarterbacks, and Mahomes clearly has the drive to win games like this.Notable examples include helping set up a 13-second score against the Bills and the game-winning field goal against the Eagles in Super Bowl LVII.
Mahomes scored in many Chiefs losses, but the Broncoos game is the most important example of Mahomes being able to take over the game and win with a major flu and failing to do so.The Chiefs took possession of the football after the field goal with 4:05 to go on the key play, pressure and winning point.Instead, the Chiefs went three-and-out, with Mahomes getting a sack on a three-and-out zone meltdown by Jaquan McMillian.They never touched the balls.
The idea that Mahomes is forcing them into these situations in the last year, however, was wrong.He often had a chance to take the lead or seal a game and drive in the bottom of the fourth, just for the offense.When they won for the Ravens, the balls, the Panthers and the soldiers, they didn't waste time or food in the fourth period.
In a draw like Sunday's Broncos game, it's a little different than other games, a four-minute exercise with a lead, but the Chiefs aren't relying entirely on their run game to seal victories.He has struggled in situations where even a touchdown is essential.Take last year against the Broncos, when the Chiefs failed on third-and-goal from the 2-yard line with 5:59 left, settling for a 20-yard field goal to take the lead.of two points.The Broncos held the ball the rest of the way and didn't have to march the length of the field for a touchdown, but Chenal got into field goal range before dashing their hopes.
You'd have to be very generous to suggest that the defense thinks about preventing a blocked kick on that play, given that it allowed the Broncos to get into field goal range to begin with.And while the Chiefs defense held the Broncos to a field goal on Sunday's final drive, the Chiefs allowed a third-and-15 conversion by the Knicks to Courtland Sutton in a surprisingly passive defensive performance.Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo showed a five-man rush and then he sent three and played Cover 2 with seven defenders and a spy in coverage, which defensive tackle Chris Jones suggested the Broncos called before the snap.Nix had time to throw all day and Sutton finally got separated from cornerback Jaylen Watson.
However, the memory of closing the door together with the game on the line several times, a year ago was not a little wrong.The crow came down and it came to Isaiah's fingers to write the last block on the last snap.The Falcons drove down the field twice to score a game-winner in the fourth quarter, only to have the Chiefs go for a penalty as well.to passRaiders Quarterback Aidan O'connell dropped two snaps.And of course, Chenal blocked a field goal against the Broncos.
Even if we count that number, this big break is still gaining traction in 2024. The Panthers scored with a 2-pointer holding the ropes to tie the game with just 1:49 left for Mahomes to lead the game-winning drive.
This season, the defense allowed Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars to go 60 yards in 75 seconds to protect a four-point lead, ending with Lawrence fumbling and still having enough time to get up and score the game-winning touchdown.The Chiefs had a punt to take the lead with 1:48 left in the same game, but Harrison Bowker tipped the punt out of bounds, giving the Jags the ball.in the 40th line.
If we're going to start looking for real issues for the Chiefs compared to what's going on in 2024, special teams is a good place to start...
What is really different (and concerned)?
The Chiefs were generally solid on special teams last season and had some key moments.Chenal won the game with that block.Daniel Carlson missed a 58-yard field goal that would have given the Raiders a fourth down.Wright's field goal bounced off the uprights and went in to tie the game.Kickers hit 81.8% of their field goals and extra point attempts in every situation against the Chiefs last season.They were 33 of 35 (94.3%) this season.
Last year, between various offenses, the Chiefs made 6 of 6 field goal attempts to take the lead in the fourth quarter, three more successful conversions than any other team in the NFL.They've been a lot sloppier this season, although it's mostly been in a more subtle way.Butker missed the extra point in a loss to the Chargers and a 58-yard field goal attempt in a three-point loss to the Eagles.On Sunday he kicked off.short of the touchdown zone, although he scored no points on the ensuing Broncos drive.
Boker also had another punt blocked after the touchdown to make it 19-16 in the fourth quarter.Offensive tackle Wania Morris went near the middle of the attempt, and while teams can overload offensive linemen on those blocking attempts, the Broncos switched one of the linemen over Morris to the other side of the line, leaving him to help out with just one defender.He didn't have enough for that defender, Frank Krum, who finally made a critical block.The entire endgame situation might have played out differently if the Broncos needed a touchdown, instead of being able to score a field goal.
Spagnuolo's conservative play also impressed me.This is a coach who has made himself a legend by running the right blitz at the right time, most recently clinching the AFC Championship Game win over the Bills in January.I can understand jumping into coverage and trying to force Nix into making a mistake (and the sophomore quarterback almost did), but it doesn't feel like it.typical of what the Chiefs typically want to do in key spots on the defensive side of the ball.
That decision led to the Chiefs not having a reliable or effective blitzing group this season.After Sunday's loss, the Chiefs are last in the NFL in pressure rate (32.4 percent) because they have an extra quarterback.In 2024, they were ninth (44.0%).If you're not hitting home runs, you're not going to get very good defense behind those calls, if you're not hitting with your own blitzes.The Chiefs have dropped to 23rd this season from last season.Was 8-of-6 for 113 yards against Blitz Sunday.
It really feels like these guys miss the safety of just Jead, who is just one type and good for them later in free pick.Like Spagnuolo who is still classified as someone who wants to go to the field in the main position of the second, even if it is the middle of November.TRDS MCDEFIE plays in a bowl position and can be placed on something, but watson is locked to anyone and does not seem to sit on all players.
Third-round pick Nohl Williams, who looked promising in limited duty, hasn't played more defensive snaps this season, returned to an all-tackle role this season, returned to an all-tackle role this season, and returned to an all-tackle role this season.Offshore Fulton, who signed a two-year, $20 million contract with the Chiefs, returned to the lineup for the first time since Week 2, but allowed completions of 21 and 35 yards on 9 snaps.
Sunday marked about the third time this season that Mahomes has done something that has become a major problem for the Chiefs — throw an inning in the red.He has two teams level with 105 attempts at the 20 line in 2024.Mahomes.Leanwarru is on day 63.
Kelce was responsible for one of those picks when he dropped a pass at the goal line against the Eagles, but Mahomes threw a brutal pick-six to Devin Lloyd against the Jaguars and then didn't get enough on Sunday's down.The Broncos took the next down the field for a touchdown.The play from the 21-yard line became an honorable red choice.By that count, Mahomes has now thrown a red-zone interception in their three losses.Even if we imagine the Chiefs settling for field goals in those broadcasts, tackles have taken nine points on the field in Kansas City.The Eagles, Broncos and Jaguars have turned those picks into TDS.That's a 30-point swing in games of three points or less.
Of course, the Chiefs are better in some ways, especially on the offensive side of the ball.Josh Simmons has been an upgrade at left tackle, and although he missed time while dealing with an off-game situation, the first-round rookie returned to the lineup Sunday and did a reliable job against a tough set of Broncos edge rushers.Simmons allowed a rushing touchdown on 48 Mahomes dropbacks.Filled in for Morris and allowed three rushes and a sack at left tackle.
Mahom While he was only 1-fo-6 in the Broncos, one he hit was Tyyadion 61-ying to Ty Cornton, who ran McMillian.Sahomes also had to punt 40 yards and 47 yards down against the liley moss.All three Kansas City Scores include at least one fair or Pi penalty, so the chief may not be able to strive long from short torture.
Mahomes has 17 completions of 20 yards or more this season, and his QBR on those throws is the best in the league.A year ago, he had just 12 completions all season, and his QBR was as high as 28. Last season, he also had 27. But at the same time, Mahomes missed the worthy Xavier and Thornton for what could have been a stretch.Completed on the opening drive, which can change the structure of the match.
Do quarterbacks like Mahome just blossom?
It depends on how many defenders you want to put in his company.FPI gave the Chiefs a 23.9 percent chance of missing the playoffs in the preseason, but that includes the possibility of Mahomes getting injured.If you were to poll fans in August and ask them if a Chiefs team with a healthy Mahomes would miss the postseason, I suspect you'd have to work a few hours before you'd find anyone who thought that was a possibility.
Mahomes felt like a preseason lock to make the playoffs because he's never come close to missing them.At this point in the season, the Chiefs were in the top three in six of his first seven years as Kansas City's starting quarterback.Maybe the Broncos or Chargers won the division was plausible enough, but short of fury or craziness, no one thought the Chiefs would miss the playoffs this summer — and for good reason.
The 30-year-old quarterback also feels like a lock because the man he always compares himself to seems to have never missed the playoffs either.The start of Mahomes' career surrounded the later years of Tom Brady's story, and the seventh Super Bowl champion was also booked in January of each year.The Patriots missed the playoffs in 2002 (Brady's second year as a star) and 2008 (when Brady tore his ACL in the first game and missed the entire season), and the Buccaneers went 8-9 in Brady's final year around that time.
Is it fair to keep Mahomes in the typical Brady set?Absolutely.If you're willing to consider other Hall of Famers who have won MVPs, you'll find that the idea of a legendary quarterback missing the playoffs or lingering at .500 for 10 games or less isn't unheard of. Even in healthy stretches during the most important time of their careers:
Peyton Manning went 6-10 as a 25-year-old with the Colts in 2001, even after earning MVP votes in 1999 and 2000.
In 1995, Brett Favre went 5-4 in his first MVP season before moving on to the Jets. At this time in 1999, he was 30 years old with a 5-5 Packers team that missed the playoffs, and after 10 games in 2003, 2004 and 2005, he was .500 or worse (although he was nearing the end of his career at that point).
Aaron Rodgers went 4-6 in 2016 with the Packers at age 33.Green Bay finished in first place in the division and won before reaching the NFC Championship game.
Joe Montana's season was plagued by strikeouts and injuries, but he was healthy in 1985, and his 49ers were still 5-5 in 10 games.Hot off a 1984 Super Bowl victory, the 49ers entered the playoffs with a 10-6 wild card record, and were quickly dispatched by the Giants.
John Elviy won the MVP award in 1987 and led the Broncos to the Super Bowl, but the following season saw him go 5-5 and miss the playoffs altogether.He was 28 years old at the time.The Broncos started 3-7 in 1990 and missed the playoffs in 30 days.
Dan Marino was first-team all-quarterback for the third straight year in 1986, but after a poor defensive start, he went 4-6 and missed the playoffs at Marino's age.
Kurt Warner, who often wasn't healthy enough to finish a full season, went 0-6 as a starter in 2002 and a year later won his second MVP and faced off against Brady in the Super Bowl.
Mahomes' contemporaries have also had some problems.Remember that the Bills and Josh Allen were 5-5 at this point two years ago, with Sean McDermott choosing to fire offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey.The Bills hit the bye at 6-6, but won their last five games and combined that with the Dolphins' collapse to take over the AFC East, but then lost to the Chiefs at home in the first round.
Lamar Jackson and the Ravens did very well in the regular season for a long time, but they were 6-5 in 2020 after the disappointing loss to the Bulls.Like Allen in Buffalo, Jackson and the Ravens worked and won the final five games of the season, finishing 11-5.They beat the Titans 11-5 en route to Jackson's first game before losing to the Bills in the round.
Obviously, some of the quarterbacks who didn't get upset in the playoffs aren't as offensive or offensive to Chiefs and Mahomes today.It's amazing, because the guy we're talking about as the best quarterback in football at any time probably hasn't missed a healthy season since Elway or Montana.It's all very much in the eye of the beholder as to who's better, but Brady and we're probably a little bit of a spoilsport in their divisions and making the playoffs on an annual basis.
Will the Chiefs miss the playoffs?
I don't think so.FPI gives them a 55.4% chance to make the postseason.Of course, there is always the potential for Mahomes to be injured, which breaks Kansas City's chance completely.We may eventually with some great links that the algorithms will often not find them, and will probably not favor the headteachers given their record against many of the other teams in the wildcard hunt.And with the departmental probability down to 9.1%, Chargers-Broncos recapture could be with the AFC West title in week 18. It would take something truly shocking to get the headteachers back in that race, though we could say the same about the bills in 2023, which succeeded in the dolphin edge for the East AFC title in week 18.
With seven games to go, though, the schedule gets easier from here.The Colts don't have pushovers and get into it themselves, even though Daniel Jones has struggled over the past two weeks.The leaders put cowboys, titans and strikers on the road now and the end of the year, and when there is no gimme game to dominate the bad team in the way the leaders of 2024 do not.
Love the grancises - the Colts, Tetans, the chargers and the charges and broncos - they're all on the arrowhead.This is the end of events.It wouldn't hurt if the Chiefs were favored in each of their second sitting games.(Although that doesn't mean they'll win seven.)
Above all, evidence for this very good football team that had a bad time or bad transparency.There is no dominant team in the AFC.The Broncos deserved a fantastic offense and had a fantastic defense, but the Knicks were wildly inconsistent and Denver needed the Giants and the Giants.The Bills needed it and lost to the Falcons and Dolphins.Brownies.The charger is old by the curves.The Colts haven't been able to lately.Pataboni played one of the easiest schedules in a short while.
I wrote at length about many of these teams last week, and of course these are simplistic one-liners.But there isn't a team with the kind of undeniable resume we've seen from major AFC teams in recent years.Their record is disappointing, but I'm not sure the Chiefs are really that much worse than any or all of those teams.
And while they won't start winning 100% of their close games again, remember that analyzing the team will mean 0-10 in future games.Simple math would expect managers to win 50% of their close games.I would expect their true talent level and win rate to be 50-50 in those contests.It's a little high.If they play five games that spill from here, the leaders have a chance to finish 3 of those meetings more than 0-0.
Can they still win the Super Bowl?
As someone who consistently picks the Chiefs to win the Lombardi Trophy — even in years when I simultaneously predict their regular-season record to drop — I have to close by weighing in on that side of the equation.If the top of the AFC is truly a murky mess, and I believe the Chiefs can still be a part of it, it doesn't seem outlandish to say they could seriously contend in the postseason, as teams like Allen and Rodgers have done in the past.
What? Has any team ever gone from 5-5 to a Super Bowl title?Well, one.When I talked about Brady earlier, I didn't mention his 2001 Patriots because Brady was a rookie and was filling in for an injured Drew Bledsoe in Week 2. A loss to the Rams dropped the Patriots to 5-5 in mid-November, but that was the last time Bill Belick's team started that season.The Patriots won their final six games of the regular season to finish 11-5 and advance to the first round.You probably know what happened next.This ends with an upset victory over Warner's Rams in the Super Bowl.
The 2011 Giants were 6-6 before they got hot and won their second title against Brady's Patriots, and the 1979 Rams reached the Super Bowl and lost after starting 5-5.But there's a reason teams without late-season winning records don't usually go deep into the postseason: They're usually not very good.The Chiefs may be better than most, but go on the road and win three times.Winning in January is more difficult than hosting two games at Arrowhead.The Chiefs can pull it off if they put it all together, but it looks like they'll have an interesting run of results in the playoffs and fall somewhere behind Santa Clara.
Mathaimes and this team are better than their records, but they may do too much harm to come back with another title this season.
