Jan 01, 2026
3 min read
Happy New Year, NBA fans -- let's ring in 2026 with a bang.
Five bold NBA predictions for 2026: Giannis, LeBron and Zion moving on, plus a surprise champion
Happy New Year, NBA fans -- let's ring in 2026 bravely
As the calendar turns to 2025, I have a series of predictions about how the rest of the decade will play out.Some of them turned out great!Nickeil Alexander-Walker actually emerged to be Derrick White's next point guard.I said Giannis Antetokounmpo would be the best player traded in 2026, that seems reasonable.Feel free to ignore my championship predictions.2025 (Cleveland), but otherwise, the sport was fun and hopefully somewhat informative.
We can't repeat this in 2026 because it's not one of those beautiful and important numbers.There are only four years left until the end of this decade, so there is no point in revising last year's forecasts.So instead, we'll take a closer look at the next 12 months.Below are five bold NBA predictions for 2026. The window we're working in is the calendar year.Anything that happens before January 1, 2027 is fair game and we will make those predictions.I'm not asking for credit for drafting the Thunder champion.Big swing, guys.
1. Giannis.... Traded to the Heat
Everyone in Milwaukee is worried about Giannis Antetokounmpo's current situation.The Bucks will keep their fingers in their ears and sing "la-la-la we can't hear you" every time the rumors come up, pretending that this time is close and preparing themselves for the disappointment when the deal goes through.Meanwhile, Antetokounmpo is refusing band support, apparently out of fear of being a bad name in the only city he's ever played in.Meanwhile, he's refusing to shut down Bucks fans and hurt Milwaukee's eventual comeback, doing more damage than it would have if he had admitted he wanted to leave.The two teams seem content to continue playing each other until the end of February, setting up a season finale of some sort.
The Bucks will certainly offer a long-term contract extension that he can sign later in the offseason.Antetokounmpo will refuse if he means anything he ever said about wanting to win a second championship.Once that happens, a trade will become inevitable, but with only one year left on his contract, the number of teams that could justify a significant offer will be greatly reduced.Very few teams will want to spend the nose in 2027 on someone who can run for free as a free agent.
With that advantage in mind, Antetokounmpo will make it known that he wants to join the New York Knicks, who we say will lose in the NBA Finals.This immediately deters small market lurkers.The big boys will be more open to taking risks.The Lakers would, but with Austin Reaves a free agent and therefore out of trade talks, their best asset is functionally unavailable.The Spurs and Rockets seem pretty happy with what they have.So who has the ability to outbid New York, and who has the confidence to assume Antetokounmpo will eventually re-sign him?
Miami Heat. Antetokounmpo shares agent Alex Saratsis and Bam Adebayo. Miami can build an offer around Tyler Herr, Kel'El Ware and the rest of its financial capital than any old package New York combines without separating the Saratsis duo. Miami's track record of attracting stars is legendary and Pat Riley will certainly try to finish.bound to give him a real chance of being killed.Unless one of the small rich teams has a postseason disappointment and changes, this may result in a bidding war between the best markets.As it stands, Miami probably has the most potential trade at this point and has the most to lose if it misses out.After all, the Knicks can make the Finals as is.The Lakers have an MVP candidate in their mid-20s.
2. The Charlotte Hornets make the Play-in Tournament
A slightly lower game prediction, but a related one.After all, if we consider that Washington, Indiana and Brooklyn all take off the year, the floor of Charlotte in the Eastern Conference No. 12. That means they have to pass two of the top 10 teams to sneak into the play-in tournament.Chicago is a fairly reasonable prediction for such a slot. The Bulls have been running hot and cold throughout the year, starting 6-1 before they lost 15 of their next 20. They followed up with a five-game winning streak, but their defense remains atrocious and that inconsistency makes them vulnerable.Which other team do we predict Charlotte will pass?The Bucks put the final nail in the coffin of the Antetokounmpo era.
Antetokoinmpo just returned from a calf injury, and the guards are still outside the top 10 in the East.They are brutal, they play all six rankings.The context here: the backs are deceptively capable of tanking if they want to use his calfmpo, so if the dollars really want to stop the trade this summer.
But enough about the Bucks.We're here to talk about the Hornets.Did they get fat against bad teams?Yes.The defense is still a mess.They are still very young.hit shots.They have the flexibility to decide to add talent at the deadline if they really want to contend in the postseason.They still have a few years to make some serious noise, but the Hornets are no longer pushing.If Milwaukee and Chicago disappear, they are set for a weak postseason spot.
3.Zion Williamson picks up and signs with the Chicago Bulls
Zion Williamson was replaced by Derrick Quinn in New Orleans.Williamson has played well since returning from his latest injury, but New Orleans can't justify paying the max salary for someone who is rarely healthy enough to contribute.He and King can't defend, so New Orleans should start looking to get a rim protector in the building with the money earmarked for Williamson.However, the Pelicans will certainly explore the trade market. Any deal involving significant assets also comes with toxic salaries. They will decide their best course of action is to give up Williamson.His contract situation is complicated.It's not guaranteed, but if he hits triggers in certain games, it's guaranteed. If the Pelicans decide to go that route, they can bench him to make sure the money isn't guaranteed.His injury history means there's a good chance they don't need him.
So where will he go from there?Well, it depends on what you're looking for.In basketball terms, he would ideally land on a candidate who could take him off the bench and limit his minutes.The question is where.The Lakers have money, but they don't need it.They will spend on defense and retention.San Antonio could also generate cash and perhaps see Williamson as a cheap route to the kind of rim dominance that trading Antetokounmpo would give them.But such a move would definitely be out of character for Spurs.It seems more likely that they keep Harrison Barnes and work on developing Carter Bryant as a long-term forward or trade for someone closer to Barnes' skills as a shooter.Here, the Heat get Antetokounmpo, so they're out.Most of the other winners either don't have a cap or simply don't need Williamson's skills.Plus, they'll likely be asking for more than the mid-level offer they'd most likely make.
Instead, we look at the side positions of the team.These clippers cannot justify another harm crisis.The jazz are loaded up front when Lauri Markkton is there.The nets have nothing loaded, but Michael Porter Jr., he plays heavy forward.Di Wizards are two years off of his two year away.The Bulls are the only team to check any of Williamson's great boxes.They will be lucky to check some.
Chicago probably rewards draft pedigree more than most teams.They have traded good veterans to their original teams for weaker bets in recent years, with Josh Giddey and Isaac Okoro being prominent examples.Go back a little further and we even see a template for the kind of deal that Chicago could offer.A $ 40 million deal containing a team option for a second season.There is a place in Chicago to offer a high cap.That is important to the obvious financial, but also for more subtle reputation reasons.Players do not like to take significant pay cuts in part because they fear teams will start to think they are worth their new salary rather than their old one.However, that big, short -term cap will almost certainly include non -guarantees or options as a balancing mechanism.
The Bulls see Gidey as a Tyreese Halliburton-type character and are now looking for their own version of Pascal Siakam.Most of these players are very expensive in trades.The Bulls haven't spent significant capital on a veteran player since signing DeMar DeRozan in 2021.Williamson is a low-risk, high-reward opportunity for this type of player.If it doesn't work out, they can just move on and do their big business later.
Will this be a great basketball game? No, Williamson needs the ball. So does Geddy. It's unclear if Williamson can still play at the breakneck pace Chicago likes, and the Bulls need rim protection more than rim attraction. But the Bulls do need to make a talent move at some point, and they like to sell tickets. Williamson makes sense on both counts, and can be acquired without making a big long-term gamble. That's enough for the Bulls.
4. The Denver Nuggets will win the 2026 NBA Finals
Look, we're going for some dire predictions here.If you want statistics, you have to pick "the field" on any particular team to win the championship, and if you want something you like math, it's definitely the Thunder.So for any bold champion choice, it should be someone else, and it should definitely be more special than "farming."
While Indiana is out of contention this year, Denver is the only team in the field with any record to challenge Oklahoma City in the playoffs.If the Thunder have weaknesses, the Nuggets are ready to exploit them.Oklahoma City opens games with its turnovers.The Nuggets never give up the ball.The Thunder still struggle against zone defense.uses zone defense, and obviously the Nuggets played very well in last year's series.Denver's bench has been a nightmare throughout its playoff history.The Nuggets at least survive resting Nikola Jokić this season (and we'll see how that goes with Jokić missing significant time early in the year), and he comes out with a few starters being healthier and deeper, as Aaron Gordon got hurt midway through the season and Michael Porter Jr. was playing with one arm.
The Spurs just beat the Thunder three times.Their shooting makes them a slightly tougher playoff proposition, but they have shown they have a real chance.Houston also has a puncher's chance against the Thunder.While Denver can slow the game down, Houston can mess it up with defense and rebounds.Oklahoma City is not a champion for sure because they don't actually exist.Denver stands out as the main contender simply because of Jokić.canThe closest analog in the Western Conference would be Luka Dončić, but his Lakers are too slow and unathletic to last seven games with the Thunder.We saw Jokić almost slay the dragon last spring.This year, we're betting it gets the job done.
5. LeBron returns to the Cavs as a free agent
If the Lakers were planning on a multi-year deal with LeBron James, a contract extension last offseason would have made sense. In the summer of 2024, James took the initiative and took a pay cut to help the Lakers recruit talentthat he wants to fight for a championship.
If the Lakers were ready to truly compete for a championship in 2026, they might be tempted to re-sign James and move on.As it stands, they look at least a little worse than the Thunder, Nuggets, Spurs and Rockets, the latter two in that group after beating the Lakers in marquee games in December.The Lakers have their virtues, especially when it comes to ball handling, but this team is so unathletic and lacking defensively that it currently has no championship ceiling.Current.Maybe they can change that via trade, but with only one first-round pick at their disposal before the deadline, they have very limited ammunition to try to do so.
The Lakers have a golden opportunity to spend cap space in 2026. Austin Reeves will be an unrestricted free agent, but he still has a relatively low cap hit of $20.9 million, which would give them about $55 million to spend in cap space if they wanted to. The moment he signs his next deal, cap space will become more difficult.Re-signing James for any significant salary would reduce his expendable cap space.Whatever the Lakers do after signing Doncic, they would rather spend their money building a team over the next five years.He doesn't want to calm down, if he doesn't look like he can lead them to the championship right now.
Could James re-sign with the Lakers for a lower salary?Certainly.It might even be tempting if they improve the team enough.He made it clear that he wanted to win a fifth title.But James is not stupid.As a nine-time Eastern Conference winner, he knows exactly where the easiest path to the Finals lies.He is also very conscious about his image.What would it be like if James came to Los Angeles for less than the price they paid for one or two notable free agents?Will he be re-signed?He would try to portray it as an act of generosity that put the team first.That, his critics said, was his value alone.
At the end of the day, you finally want to play where you want.If the lakers, with caip space and full right to the flyers, do not make a significant financial offer, the implication is that they are ready to move.And if this is the case, well, Jacob will not have a big problem to catch the sweaters if he lower the price point enough.He flirts with the nicks for years.The Warriors have already tried to deal with it.Well.You know he will not be his first choice.For Libron Jacob, all roads lead back to Cleveland.
Last summer, when a trade briefly seemed possible, such a reunion still seemed impractical.Cleveland's second-court situation makes it impossible to match salary without destroying its team.The Cavaliers won 64 games.They're not going to inflate that roster for four.But things have changed.Cleveland has lost nearly as many games this year as it did last season.There's still plenty of talent here, though if this season ends in another disappointment, there will certainly be changes on the fringes.Not enough to import James at his true market value, but enough to entice James to his last dance.If he gets the minimum in Cleveland, it'll be a lot easier than taking a pay cut with the Lakers.He doesn't have to make sacrifices to accommodate his team's new direction.It gives discount to his hometown team trying to save them after a chaotic season.There will no doubt be leaks about other teams interested in paying him more in the process.
We haven't mentioned the retirement plan yet.Of course it is possible, but it will feel out of character if you come after this time.Does LeBron James seem like the type of player who will quietly go out after his first outing?Of course not.He wants a retirement trip.He would like a year off.Don't do it.The team may belong to Donovan Mitchell, but the city belongs to LeBron now and forever.If the Lakers go the other way, no other team can give him the finish he wants.
