Feb 15, 2026
3 min read
Here's the latest NCAA Tournament project from the CBS Sports Bracketology template
Bracketology: Michigan State's 2026 NCAA Tournament Project Drops, Wisconsin Continues to Rise
Here are the latest NCAA Tournament projections from the CBS Sports Bracketology model
When Wisconsin reveals its 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket next month, a No. 1 or No. 2 seed will be a formidable team.The Badgers cemented their growing reputation as the Big Ten's slayers with a 92-71 victory over Michigan State on Friday night.
The loss dropped the Spartans from No. 3 to No. 4 in the CBS Sports Bracketology model.Wisconsin is now the top No. 8 seed in the field and will increase its position once all results from Saturday and Sunday are factored into the model.
Three days after the loss to Illinois, a 21-point win over the Spartans was another indication of how offensive Wisconsin can be.A program that once played slow and focused inside is now playing fast and quick 3-pointers.Friday night marked the fifth time this season the Badgers made 15 or more 3-pointers.
The guard duo of Nick Boyd and John Blackwell is performing as one of the best in all of college basketball.They combined for 53 points against Michigan State, and both rank among the top 10 scorers in the Big Ten.Again, this is a team that no top seed will want to face in the second round.
Heading into a big, action-packed Saturday, here's an analysis of the state of affairs in the top ranks of the CBS sports team.
Top seed bracketology
See the entire field of 68 on the CBS Sports Bracketology Center.
All three of Wisconsin's league championships (against Michigan State, Illinois and Michigan) have included 15+ 3-pointers.In contrast, the team is 3-5 on fewer than 10 shots from beyond the arc.Living and dying by the 3-pointer is a notoriously risky way to live, but it's been effective lately: getting the Badgers back from a wobbly 2025-26 season to this season.
After a 7-4 start in losses to TCU, Nebraska and Villanova, Wisconsin's outlook looked bleak.But at the time, it was unclear how good those teams were.Nebraska and Villanova are expected to field big teams.TCU is a bubble team that has shown they have the ability to destroy champions.The Badgers are 9-7 in quads 1 and 2 and undefeated in quads 3 and 4.Wisconsin State is 25th on the Wins Above Bubble (WAB) list after its win over the Spartans.Badgers are also growing in predictive analytics.
The WAB measures the number of wins a team has in a season and the number of wins the average bubble team would have over the same schedule.
Michigan is stuck
Michigan State has lost three of its last four games since a 19-2 start.Now 20-5 (10-4 Big Ten), the Spartans have stopped.This is unusual for the program.A year ago, Michigan State started 18-2 but dropped three of its first four games in February.against mid-Big Ten opponents.
The Spartans then went on a seven-game winning streak to finish the regular season and defeat six NCAA Tournament teams.The journey did not end until the elite eight.You can never count on a Tom Izzo-coached team, and these Spartans will have plenty of opportunities to get back in line with the No. 3 seed. If they finish the regular season like they did last season, the No. 2 seed could still be on the table.
