Mar 25, 2026
3 min read
There are three reasons why selecting Alabama's Ty Simpson with the 16th pick is a very risky choice for the New York Jets.
It's the NFL draft season – a time of change in opinion.
For most of the NCAA season, it felt like Indiana's Fernando Mendoza and Alabama's Ty Simpson were neck and neck in the quarterback power rankings.But Mendoza distinguished himself as the year unfolded.He continued to win and deliver in the clutch while Simpson's production continued to decline.
Currently, Mendoza is the favorite to be selected No. 1 overall by the Las Vegas Raiders.
However, despite this, Simpson returned to the conversation.
Other scouts and talent evaluators have begun to turn their attention to Simpson, viewing him as a player who could make it to the next level.
With the New York Jets still searching for their long-term QB and holding two first-round picks in this year's draft, the natural question is: Should Gang Green take Simpson with their second first-round pick at No. 16?
Here are three reasons why it would be a huge mistake.
1. Forgiveness for frustration
Fans need to understand the importance of making the right quarterback decision, whether it's this year's draft or next.
The Jets' first season under head coach Aaron Glenn and general manager Darren Mougey was brutal, finishing with a 3-14 record.Glenn in particular would not be able to survive another season with three wins.Mougey, while making some great moves throughout his career, couldn't afford to fire his starting quarterback early.
That decision will determine their job security and ultimately their legacy in New York.
So, patience is the key.
The Jets are in no position to push for a quarterback this year.Jets fans are tired of hearing it, but the 2027 quarterback class is generally viewed as deeper and stronger.In addition,Remember, the Jets had three first-round picks in that draft.
It is more important to do it right than quickly.
2. Simpson doesn't like the plan Frank Reich expects
Aside from being able to attack the middle of the field at a high level, Simpson doesn't fit perfectly with Frank Reich's expected offensive scheme.
At 6-foot-1 and 211 pounds, Simpson is undersized for the position and especially for a Rec-led system that has historically favored bigger, more traditional pocket passers like Philip Rivers and Carson Wentz.Rec's brief tenure in Carolina only reinforced that statement, as did a young rookie quarterback from Alabama, Bryce Young.Struggled hard in his system.
Aside from looks, Simpson has shown glimpses of being a top-tier player, especially thanks to his excellent setup, but he's been inconsistent all year.
Simpson has yet to show the pocket presence and downfield accuracy so important in the NFL, especially in an offense led by Reich.When the pocket collapses, things can fall apart quickly for the Alabama product.Ball protection was a huge problem last season, as he turned the ball over four times when the play was broken.
3. Only 15 colleges are started
If the Jets select Simpson in the first round, they're betting he'll be a big breakout.
In four college seasons, Simpson started 2025 and started only 15 games. This lack of experience is very important. In the past decade, only three quarterbacks were drafted in the first round with 15 or less college starts: Anthony Richardson, Mitchell Trubisky and Dwayne Haskins.
The results were not very encouraging... To say the least.
Richardson has completed 50.6 percent of his passes in three NFL seasons with 11 touchdowns and 13 interceptions and spent the entire 2025 season as a backup for the Indianapolis Colts.Trubisky settled into a backup role after failing to become the franchise quarterback in Chicago.Haskins, whose career ended tragically, struggled at the NFL level.
That doesn't mean Simpson should be completely ruled out as a first-round pick, but the lack of starters is certainly a factor that teams around the league will weigh.
Team evaluation is largely about sample size.When NFL teams have more tape per player, they can envision a clearer trajectory for the signal-caller at the next level.
As the 2025 season progressed, Simpson's results began to trend in the wrong direction.During his first 11 games, Simpson averaged 266.7 passing yards and two touchdowns while completing 66.9% of his passes.In the final four games of the season, those numbers dropped to 158.3 yards and 1.5 touchdowns per game on 57.1% passing.
A late-season slump, coupled with a lack of experience in the starting line-up, raises more questions.As defenses piled more film on him, Simpson became much less consistent and his effectiveness declined.
Then patience will return.
Prospects rise and fall each year with more reps at the college level.Last year at this time, defensive backs like Cade Klubnick and Garrett Nussmeier were considered potential headliners for the 2026 class.After their questionable seasons in 2025, however, both are now projected as Day 2 or 3 prospects.
As Simpson improves along the way, there's a good chance he'll play one more season at the college level, making him a second- or third-day pick.
One of the many reasons why the Jets would be wise not to look at Simpson in the first round.
