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Read Action Network's March Madness betting primer, including betting trends, stats and notes.

Mati Madness Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: A Primer of Online Betting Action

Before we begin - it's important to know that this is a live running article.Content, matchups, odds, trends and systems will be added to the piece until the end of the first round on Friday, March 20th (check below for an update by date!).

We're here to answer tournament questions, share stats and facts, talk futures, brackets, coaches, Cinderellas and more.Welcome to the March Madness edition of the Action Network betting playbook.

All the facts, stats and trends Tuesday, March 17, 1:00 PM ET

14 & Proud

ATS trip to Connecticut

The Huskies are undefeatedConnecticut enters the 2026 NCAA Tournament on a 14-game ATS winning streak in the Big Dance, the longest ATS winning streak for any team in the postseason — including a total of 14-0 ATS over the past three NCAA Tournaments.

Most Consecutive NCAA Tournament ATS Coverage Since 1979

- UConn 14 (2023-25)

West Virginia 12 (1998-08)

- Villanova 11 (1985-88)

Dan Hurley is 17-3 ATS (85%) in the NCAA Tournament as a head coach, the highest ATS winning percentage for a coach (min. 10 games) in a seeding season since 1979.

Dating back to the 2008-09 NCAA Tournament, the Huskies are 30-6 ATS in the playoffs, including 11-0 ATS as a seven-point or favorite in the tournament since that date in 2009, while Hurley was 8-0 ATS in the NCAA Tournament as a 7+ point favorite.

Top 4 dominates

We still have matchups for the two No. 1 seeds, which are the top four, and fourteen top-4 seeds are already in the round of 64 with a combined 291 points of favor, which is just nine points shy of the 1996 record to -300 notifications cut to 1985.

The average spread record for the top 4 seeds in Round 64 is 18.75 in 1996, 18.4 last year and so far without two seeds 1, 2026 is 18.2.

The top 14 seeds will also be double-digit favorites in the Round of 64 - the first time that has happened since the tournament was expanded in 1985. Right now, we have eight teams favored by at least 20 points in the Round of 64 - and that doesn't include Michigan or Florida - the previous record was just 19 games.

Sometimes timing matters.

Don't forget first

Since seeding in 1978, every NCAA champion to play in the conference tournament has won at least one of the March Madness games.In that span, eight champions did not play in the conference tournament ('97 ARI, '95 UCLA, '89 MICH, '87 IU, '81 IU, '79 MSU, '78 UK, '77 MARQ).

If this trend holds true, some eliminated candidates this year include: UNC, Miami (OH), Villanova, Michigan State, Nebraska, Illinois, Texas Tech, Alabama and Saint Mary's.

Round of 64 games could go the other way - teams entering round 64 face teams that lost their last game was only 31-113 (21.5%) in a row from 2016-17, and they went 3-16 in a row last year.Those groups are: Akron, Cal Baptist, Furman, Hofstra, Idaho, McNeese State, N.Y.Dakota State, Penn, USF, Tenn.State, Troy, Utah State, VCU, Wright State

They are free!

Balik are the best FT teams

Let the kids shoot free throws. Simply put, good free throw shooting teams have historically had success in coverage in tournaments. Since the 2008 NCAA Tournament, teams averaging over 75% from the stripe have achieved a 56.5% return and a 9% ROI.

If you increase the value to 76%, the ROI is 16.1%, and at 77%, the historical ROI is 21.8%.Teams that shot 77% or better this year went 97-56-2 (63.4%) ATS in the NCAA Tournament during that time.

Tight end games are where free throw shooting is most important.At 77%+, this good free throw team goes 60-34 ATS (64%) when the spread is six or less, they go 39-19 ATS (67.2%) when the spread is four or less, and they cover the spread by 4.1 points per game.

U.S. State: Illinois, Ohio States, St. Marys, Sinai, Tenn.State, UMBC

Don't always believe what you see. NCAA Tournament teams that win by 20+ points in the Round of 64 are 25-44-1 ATS (36.2%) in the Round of 32 when their opponent wins by less than 20 points in the Round of 64.

Info about each team

Here is a searchable database of all 68 NCAA tournament teams.enjoy

Rise and fall

According to our BetLabs database, after a team pulls a double-digit point upset in the NCAA Tournament, they are 4-20 straight and 8-16 against the spread in the next round since 2005.

After pulling off an upset in the previous round, the teams that will get an ATS ticket in their next game are 1-16 SU and 4-13 ATS in that span, with the only win coming from Florida Gulf Coast after 2013.

Miami-Ohio went undefeated in the regular season, becoming the 7th team to do so since starting seeding in 1978 and playing in the NCAA Tournament.Of those seven teams - 2021 Gonzaga, 2015 Kentucky, 2014 Wichita State and 1991 UNLV - have been favored in all of their tournament games.2026 Miami (OH) joins 2004 Saint Joseph's and 1979 Indiana State as teams to go undefeated in the regular season and lose any NCAA Tournament tournament – Indiana State (to Michigan State) and Saint Joseph's (to Oklahoma State) if they lose outright.

Ducand The Fun

Double-digit seeds in 6 conferences (ACC, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Pac-12 and SEC) have had success in the NCAA Tournament covering the spread, going 82-50-4 ATS (62%) compared to the top 9 seeds in 2010-11.This year it's Texas A&M, UCF and Missouri.

Big Ten Presidency

Since the 2011 NCAA Tournament, the Big Ten is 59-34-3 ATS in 64 games, the best mark of any conference.

The Big Ten has gone .500 ATS or better in eight straight contests in the Round of 64 and 13 of the last 14 contests, including .500 ATS or better.

Let's take a look at the best and worst conferences in terms of NCAA Tournament spread over the last five tournaments...

ATS conferences in the NCAA Tournament

The best |The worst |||

|1.|Big East: 37-21 ATS |Mountain West: 10-21 ATS ||

|2.|ACC: 40-28 ATS |SEC: 43-50 ATS ||

|3.|Pac-12: 25-17 ATS |WCC: 11-16 ATS ||

|၄။|Horizon: 6-1 ATS |Big South: 0-5 ATS ||

|5.|Sid: 5-1 ATS |Missouri Valley: 3-7 ATS ||

|Updated March 16 |

Follow the money

How is Cinderella doing lately?In zero time, not so good.

13 to 16 seeds in the round of 64 are 6-58 (9.4%) straight up and 25-39 (39%) over the spread since 2021, where a moneyline bet loses 13.7% ROI and an ATS bet 25.3%.The ATS bet doesn't cover at 1.86 PPG.

- 2016-2020: 8-56 SU, 33-29 ATS (+1.26 coverage margin)

- 2015-15: 9-55 SU, 35-28-1 ATS (+0.56 coverage margin)

Favorites by eight points or more went 21-0 SU in the NCAA Tournament last year - tied for the second-most SU wins without a loss for favorites by more than 8 points in history after a 22-0 SU mark in 2007. Those favorites by more than 8 points are 57-5 SU in the last three NCAA tournaments, including 19-0 after the round of 16.

Favorites entering the Sweet 16 or later were 14-1 SU in last year's tournament, the best record of any season during the standings.

Cover it now

Early in the NCAA Tournament.Experience can help.Heading into the 2018 season, coaches with more NCAA Tournament experience are 30-16 ATS against opposing coaches listed as underdogs.

So far this year they are: Missouri, Clemson, Villanova, Akron, Santa Clara, Penn State, TCU.

The first part

Since PASPA was repealed in May 2018, he is 222-175-4 (55.9%) in the NCAA Tournament.The underdogs hit .500 or better in each of the six contests that season.But that's just the first part.

Since the 2012 NCAA Tournament, games have been played at 1 p.m.ET or early March Maddens saw a 67-44-3 (60.4%) first half with a +14.5% ROI.Since the 2018 contest, the first half is 32-26.

First-half field goals in the NCAA Tournament since 2018 are 254-207-7 (55.1%). When those games are played in the Round of 16, they are 123-97-3 (55.9%) less.

Cover the Mountain

Since 2016, the Mountain West Conference is 13-26 ATS (-$1,414 per $100 bet, -36% ROI) in the NCAA Tournament.That's the lowest return of any major conference and the most profitable of any conference against the spread.

In the final 17 games of the 2007 season, the Mountaineers went over 50,000 ATS in one game, not in 2018.

The ninth-seeded Western team is just 9-29-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, including 5-35 SU in those games.

Quiet on the western front

Is it this year?

Since Arizona won the national championship in 1997, no team west of Texas has won.

Can builders break it down?

Since the 2000 NCAA Tournament, the Big Sky Conference has had its share of problems in the Big Dance.Overall, the Big Sky is 1-25 SU and 7-17-2 ATS in the NCAA Tournament, with SU's only win coming against Montana in 2006 as the conference lost 19 straight road games.

Since the 2006-07 NCAA Tournament, the Big Sky is 3-14-1 ATS in the NCAA Tournament.

Two and out?

Purdue was 30-1 before Selection Sunday, but now it's just 25-1 - all as runners-up.

Since 1985, we've seen 16 top seeds enter the tournament with future odds of 25-1 or higher - none of them reaching the title game, including one in the Final Four, in Minnesota, in 1997. Of those 16 teams, 11 did not make the second weekend.

Virginia is the No. 3 seed in this year's NCAA tournament, but still has an 80-1 chance to win it all.Since the 2003 dance, only two other top-3 seeds have entered the dance at 80-1 or higher — and both were eliminated in the round of 32:

2022 (3) Wisconsin, 80-1

2016 (3) Utah, 100-1

March Madness 2025

Futures Markets and Notes

Here's a look at the BetMGM futures market, from the start to the current line to win:

What are the best odds to win the title entering the NCAA Tournament since the rankings began in 1978?Only four teams listed above are 20-1 entering March Madness having won the title in the same time frame:

1983 NC State

The rest of the way, Michigan overtook Duke to become the favorite to win Sunday's NCAA tournament, and when the elimination round was over, Duke came out on top.

How have pre-tournament favorites gotten into March Madness recently?The pre-tournament favorite has won it 11 times since 2000, including the last two years, with Florida last year (which is tied for the top spot with Duke) and UConn the year before.It was the first time a pre-tournament favorite has won it all in back-to-back years since 2017-18.

The pre-tournament favorite has not won in three consecutive years since qualifying began in 1978.

|2025 |2024 |2018 |2005, 2009, 2017 |2013 |2012 |2007 |2001 |2000 |

➤Best preseason wins lost in first week since 1990: 2010 Kansas, 2004 Kentucky, 1994 UNC, 1990 Oklahoma.

How are the preseason favorites to win the national title in March Madness?

Purdue is the regular season favorite this year at +750;Houston is right behind at +900.Purdue and Houston are the only teams listed under 10-1 entering the season.

The preseason favorites entering last year were Kansas and UConn - Kansas lost in the round of 16, UConn lost in the round of 16 to the eventual champion Florida Gators. 2023 entered as the preseason favorite and lost in the round of 16.

In 2021, Baylor and Gonzaga were preseason favorites and met in the title game (Baylor won it all).Before that, the last preseason favorite to win it all was North Carolina at +500 in 2009.

Preseason favorites to reach the Final Four since 2009:

2009 North Carolina

Match: Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday

UMBC has won 12 consecutive NCAA Tournament games, the second-longest streak of any tournament team behind only High Point (14).

Under head coach Jim Ferry, UMBC has been a double-digit underdog 19 times - 0-19 SU in those games, but 13-6 ATS.

This is Howard's third NCAA Tournament appearance under Kenny Blakeney.In the first two games of 2023 and 2024, they went 0-2 with SU and ATS, losing in the first four and the last 64.

Prairie View owns the longest ATS winning streak in the world, currently at 11 games dating back to Valentine's Day, Feb. 14, when the streak began.

Under Lehigh's Brett Reed, the Mountain Hawks played in three NCAA Tournament games.Lehigh was up 3-0 early in the game against the halftime spread.

Troy beat Georgia Southern on Monday the 9th and will now play Thursday. This season, Troy is 5-0 SU and ATS on five or more days off/prep (including the opener).

Since 2012-13, Troy head coach Scott Cross is 91-71-2 ATS (58%) with UT Arlington and Troy as an underdog.He is .500 ATS or better in 12 of 13 seasons as an underdog.

Nebraska is 11-0 against SU this season against non-conference opponents, winning by 17.5 PPG - including four games where the Huskers were either shutout or outscored by less than 5 points.Fred Hoiberg's team did well last year in March, going 32-20-2 ATS.

Louisville has failed to cover the spread in five straight NCAA Tournament games that goes back to 2015. It marks the program's longest ATS losing streak in the tournament in more than 50 with.

High Point has won 14 straight games entering the NCAA tournament, going 22-1 SU in their last 23 games this season.High Point has been the favorite in all 34 games, with the last game coming in the Round of 64 against Purdue last year.

Greg Gard has coached 14 NCAA Tournament games with Wisconsin - and is 6-7-1 ATS - 4-1-1 ATS as an underdog and 2-6 ATS as a favorite.

Wisconsin is never a school to be upset about.As the aforementioned 7-point favorite in the NCAA Tournament, Wisconsin is 11-0 SU in the last 60 years.

Siena has played a total of 34 games this season and is 23-11.Entering the NCAA Tournament, Siena has lost 6 straight games, including 9 of its last 10.

Duke, under coach John Scheier, has been a strong under team in the NCAA Tournament, with eight of the tournament's 11 games ending under the under.This trend is even stronger in close games, with Scheyer's teams going 4-0 against the under when the total is less than 140 points and 7-0 against the under when the spread is 8 points or less.

Duke is 3-0 ATS in 64 games against John Shearer (2023-25).Since 1985, Duke has not made four appearances in the 64th round entering this year.Since '85, Duke was just 14-21 in the 64th round under Coach K.

McNeese State is 28-5 SU this season, winning 10 straight in his first season under Bill Armstrong.McNeese State is 25-0 SU on the money line in games when tied or leading this year - they are 3-5 SU when going into the half.

North Dakota State has been a good first half team this season, going 24-10 1H ATS in 34 total games this season, including 10-3 1H ATS in their last 13 games.The Bison have also been strong in the first half on the road, going 15-5 1H ATS this season.

Michigan State reached the Elite 8 in four NCAA tournaments last season - all four games were shutouts and went 4-0.

In Tom Izzo's NCAA Tournament career, he has never been hit in five consecutive games.Going back to 2022-2023, Iso is 7-2 in the NCAA Tournament.

John Calipari is 21-3 straight up in the Round of 64, but just 11-13 ATS in those games.

In the Round of 64, when Calipari's teams are -17 or higher as favorites, it's only 2-9 ATS if the line is as big as Hawaii.Cal is 6-11 ATS as a number two favorite in the Round of 64.

Hawaii has played in six NCAA Tournament games in its school history – it is 1–5 SU in those games, 1–1 SU when the game is played in PST, and 0–4 SU outside of PST.

Matchups: Friday Games

Mark Pope has coached five NCAA Tournament games with Kentucky and BYU, going 5-0 with 7.5 ppg in those games.

Kentucky has been seeded 7 or higher in the NCAA Tournament 6 times before this year - they are 9-5-1 ATS in those tournament games, and the last time they had a seed was in 2014 when they played in the title game.

In Akron's last six games in the NCAA Tournament, the under is 6-0.When Akron has played a spread game this season, as an underdog or given less than 10 points, the under is 9-4 this season.

The Redskins have a bad history on neutral courts.They are under .500 ATS on neutral courts in each of the last six seasons, including this year.In that span, Texas Tech is 13-25 ATS on neutral courts.

Worst ATS Court record since 2020

1. Virginia Tech: 8-22 ATS

2. Temple: 9-22 ATS

3. Saint Mary's: 12-27 ATS

4. Washington St.: 11-22 ATS

5. Texas Tech: 13-25 ATS

(Minimum 30 neutral matches during the period)

Arizona went 2-1 ATS in three NCAA Tournament games last year, snapping a 9-season stretch in which the Wildcats were .500 ATS or worse in the dance (where they went 4-15-1 ATS).

Arizona hasn't claimed back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearances since the 2013 tournament — something it will do in this year's Round of 64.

February 15, 2019 - Wright State defeated a top-100 Ken Pom team for the last time using end-of-season rankings.They are 0-10 against Team USA since the 2020 season and have suffered a 12-game losing streak at this position.

0-3 SU - 2025

0-2 SU - 2024

0-2 SU - 2023

0-2 SU — 2021

0-1 SU — 2020

Perfect timing.Tennessee State enters March Madness on a 6 game SU and ATS streak - their longest since 2017-18.

Tennessee State has been a 2+ point dog nine times this season - they are 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS in those games, covering a spread of 10.8 PPG.As a dog overall, Tenn.State is 6-5 SU.

Over the last two seasons under Speedy, Claxton Hofstra played 22 games as an outside hitter.Claxton is a respectable 11-11 SU and 15-7 ATS in those games, covering a 5.2 PPG margin.

Don't worry about big numbers.Nate Oats is 11-10 in the NCAA Tournament.At 155+, his teams are 7-3 ATS;at the same time they make up 4-7 automatic telephone exchanges.

Northern Iowa is back in the playoffs for the first time since 2016. The Panthers have historically been tough.They have won their Round of 64 game in three straight and in 13 NCAA Tournament games, Northern Iowa is 10-3 ATS, including 7-1 ATS in the Round of 64.

Rick Pitino is 18-5 SU in the round of 64 as a head coach - when Pitino's teams are favored in that round of 64 game, they are 17-2 SU and 11-8 ATS.

Matt Painter has coached 17 Rounds of 64 games between his days at Southern Illinois and Purdue - his teams are 13-4 ATS (77%) in those rounds.His 77% ATS winning percentage in Rounds of 64 is the highest mark of any head coach with at least 10 games coached.Painter has also had success as a favorite, going 16-8 ATS in the tournament.

Purdue was an underdog in the NCAA Tournament most recently under Matt Painter.Since 2021-22, Purdue is 11-2 down the stretch, the best mark of any school in that span, including going 4-0 in the Round of 64.

Queen's University is making its first appearance in the NCAA tournament.This season, Queen's is 4-12 SU and 3-13 ATS with a complete game at the half.

Dating back to 1978, the start of the seeding era in the NCAA Tournament, here is an ATS search-based database of every head coach. Search for a name and enjoy.

Here's a breakdown of the best and worst ATS winning percentages for strong coaches in this year's NCAA Tournament (minimum 10 NCAAT games since 1978):

Lepsha ATS Winning PCt

Bad ATS Win PC

Now let's take a look at some of the top coaches' picks in the NCAA Tournament.Click on the tables below to describe each listing type.

List A: Best and worst current ATS coaches (Min. 10 games, since 1978)

List B: Best and worst active ATS head coaches as underdogs (minimum 7 games, since 1978)

List C: Best and Worst ATS Active Head Coach in Rounds of 32 and 64 (At least 10 games since 1985)

A. ATS Favorites List

The bestThe worst |||

|1.|Dan Hurley, UConn: 15-2 ATS |Jamie Dixon, TCU: 6-16 ATS ||

|2.|Mat Painter, Purdue: 17-8 ATS |Rick Barnes, Tennessee: 20-30 ATS ||

|3.|Tom Izzo, Mich St: 32-20-2 ATS |Mark Few, Gonzaga: 19-26-1 ATS ||

|4.|Jon Scheyer, Duke: 6-4 ATS |Mick Cronin, UCLA: 8-9 ATS ||

|5.|Rick Pitino, St. John's: 34-25-1 ATS |John Calipari, Arkansas: 35-32-2 ATS ||

|Updated March 16 (min. 10 games) |

B. Liosta Underdogs ۽ ATS

Good |Worst |||

|1.|John Kleber, Arkansas: 9-3-1 sneeze |Randy Bent, CM: 2-8 sneeze ||

|2.|Andy Enfield, SMU: 6-2 ATS |Rick Barnes, Tennessee: 4-8 ATS ||

|3.|Sean Miller, Texas: 8-4 ATS |Nate Oats, Alabama: 3-4 ATS ||

4. |John Gross, Akron: 6-3 ATS |Bill Self, Kansas: 7-8 ATS ||

|5.|Matt Painter, Purdue: 10-6 ATS |Tom Izzo, Michigan St: 15-16 ATS ||

|Until March 16 (at least 7 games) |

C. First Weekend ATS Roster

Good |Worst |||

|1.|Andy Enfield, SMU: 8-2 ATS |Randy Benett, St. Mary: 6-11 ATS ||

|2.|Matt Painter, Purdue: 22-7 ATS |Rick Barnes, TN: 18-28 ATS ||

3. |Dan Hurley, UConn: 9-3 ATS |Jamie Dixon, TCU: 10-15 ATS ||

|4.|Sean Miller, Texas: 14-7-2 ATS |Kevin Willard, Villanova: 4-6 ATS ||

|Updated from March, 16 (Min. 10 Games) |

Bet Labs System

Check out some game systems from GAME EQUESTER.Click on each system for competitions, betting odds and graphs of expressed profitability.

Note: This system is intended for teams with good defensive performance.System is .500 ATS or better in last 7 NCAA contests.

Current games: USF, Siena

Notes: The old idea, "fade the public."This system focuses on under betting teams in high stakes games.For this, we use 1.1x daily average.If you have Bet Labs, add DB-AVG for smaller, higher ROI compatible models.

Current Games: Check updated betting lines

Note: Tournament free throws are important.This program targets teams that shoot less than 75% against the ball.

Divisions: Akron, Houston, Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Louisville, Michigan State, Ohio State, Siena, Tennessee State, UCLA, Wright State

Notes: In the NCAA tournament, it was all about first-half unders.Since 2017, the 1H unders are 137-111-3 (55.2%) in the first four and rounds of 64, and the unders are .500 or better in every round except the round of 32.

slow it down

Look for first-half underdogs among slower teams in the NCAA Tournament.

Current games: Iowa/Clemson, Furman/UConn, Siena/Duke, Cal Baptist/KU, Missouri/Miami, N. Dakota St/Mich.State, VCU/UNC, Utah State/Villanova

Speaking of speed, historically when a faster team faces a slower team in a championship game during a season, the slower team has an advantage in catching up the gap.especially in the first round

Current Matches: Total 18 matches.Howard and Prairie see A&M in the top four.

past!See below.

When two teams that are over .500 in the season entering the NCAA tournament meet, the total is high and hitting low is a good strategy.

Current teams: Texas/NC State, SMU/Miami (OH), Villanova/Utah State

Teams that score 20 or more points in the Round of 16 have a consecutive 82-33 record, but are just 49-64-2 ATS in the Round of 16 when their opponent wins by fewer than 20 points in the Round of 64 since 2005.

Teams losing by 20+ points heading into the NCAA Tournament are 28-14-1 ATS in the Round of 64 since 2005.

Partidos actuais: Texas A&M, Texas Tech, UCF, KU, UConn, Miami

Hold the ball

Don't turn the ball over.Tournament teams with a low turnover average will succeed as underdogs in the first half of the round of 64.

1H Dogs are 88-61-2 1H ATS (58.2%) in 11-of-11 years or less (58.2%) in nine NCAA Tournament appearances since 2011, posting a mark over .500 ATS in the Round of 64.

Current Games: 17 games total.McNeese State, Clemson, Northern Iowa and Villanova have the lowest TO in the group.

Public historical oath

When looking closely at the betting percentages spread across games in our Action Labs software, which is available for every game in over 10 sports, here are some notes on public betting patterns:

How did popular underdogs fare in the NCAA Tournament?

Around 64The receiving Dogs are basically .500 ATS with an 87-90-2 ATS record since 2005, but in the 32nd.They are 39-54-1 ATS,It was the worst mark of any round in the tournament.

How has the overall performance been in March Madness as a whole?

Two years ago, the public was at their best on March Madness.Teams with more than 50% of bets or tickets go 45-21 ATS (68%) in 2024.You bet $ 100 up to $ 2,003 for a 30.4% ROI.In 2025, there will be a move back to more common signs.The public went 27-38 ATS (42%) with $ 100 bets losing $ 1,326 for -20.4% ROI.Overall the betting community is .500 ATS or lower in the last eight of the 13 seasons.

What have we learned about public betting and more or less?

The public tends to do a better job of accurately predicting Unders in the NCAA Tournament than Overs.Here are the public betting results for Overs and Unders in the last 7 matches since 2017-18.

General Time Overs (+51% of Overs): 4-176-143 (45%) Overs - 0.9 PPG less overall

When unders are on the public side (51%+ tickets to unders): 77-57-1 (58%) from unders - under 1.2 PPG overall

Should you avoid massive public parties?

Since 2005, only 13 different teams have been shut out with at least 80% of the spread betting in the NCAA Tournament.These 13 teams are 2-11 ATS.If you discount it to 75%+, those sides are 31-44-2 ATS in March Madness.

Best side in the NCAA Tournament since 2005 (0-8 ATS)

|Team |Match (ET) |Year/Result |

|Oregon (-8.5) vs. Miami-Ohio |2007, Ronde van 64 Oregon State (89%) |ORE, 58-56 ||

|Louisville (-21,5) vs. Morehead State |2009 16. kolo Louisville (87%) |UL, 74-54 ||

|Oklahoma (-14.5) vs.Cal State Bakersfield |2016, Zagaye na 64 Oklahoma (85%) |OU, 82-68 ||

|Tennessee (-19) versus Americani |2008 Round of 64 à Tennessee (85%) |TENN, 72-57 ||

|Memphis (-20) vs. Cal State Northridge |2009, kolo 64 Memphis (84 %) |MEM, 81-70 ||

|Duke (-20.5) vs. Albany |2013, Round of 64 Duke (83%) |Duke, 73-61 ||

|Memphis (-26) vs UT Arlington |2008, 64th Round Memphis (83%) |MEM, 87-63 ||

|Eyaleta Michigan (-5) vs. George Mason |2006 Round of 64 Michigan St.

March Madness Trends

Let's take a live look at 64 and the First Four's biggest lineup changes to date.

The greatest fragmentation of movement

Houston 4-point pana: -19.5 i -23.5 vs.Idaho

Illinois 4-pt Edge: -20.5 to -24.5 V Pen

Texas 3-Point Walk: +1.5 to -1.5 vs.

Cal Baptist/Kansas moved 4 points: 134.5 to 138.5.

Troy/Nebraska h-five swing: 133.5 to 137.5

Idaho/Houston 3-putt swing: 133.5 to 136.5

Lehigh/Prairie View A&M 6-point move: 148.5 – 142.5

NC State/Texas 5-point move: 163.5 to 158.5

Miami (OH) / SMU 5-point draw: 167.5 ber 163.5

The favorites recently dominated the NCAA Tournament.Over the last two tournaments, favorites are 76-58 ATS (56.7%), covering the spread by 1.5 PPG, with a $100 bettor increasing their ROI by 8.6% to +$1,148, the best two-year stretch for ATS favorites since 2008-09.

During this period, odds of 6+ points are 46-25 ATS (+$1,712, +24% ROI) and 8+ points are 32-14 ATS (+$1,520, +33% ROI).

height phalamos

Thanks to Bet Labs, we have identified the 16 schools that are playing at the highest level in the country during the season.Since 2005, these teams are 32-69-1 ATS (32%) in the NCAA Tournament.They have finished above .500 ATS as a group of schools just once since 2005.

Current matchups: Utah State

A different class

Since the 2013 NCAA Tournament, we have had 25 teams in the Round of 64 on 3 full days of rest or less and face a team of 4+ days on the other side.

For example, Wisconsin at Montana in 2024. Meles lost in the Big Ten title game on Sunday and played Montana on Thursday.Montana played eight days before last Wednesday.

During that span, the 25-team record was 23-2 SU and 16-8-1 ATS — a good team without massive layoffs.

Current Game: Vanderbilt vs.Arkansas

Back to normal

Public fading

In 2024, audiences had the best March Madness in over two decades.Teams with more than 50% of spread bets (or tickets) went from 45 to 21 ATS (68%) with bets from $100 to $2,003 for a 30.4% ROI.

In 2025, there was a reversal to a more normal level.The public went 27-38 ATS (42%), and the $100 bettor lost $1,326 for a -20.4% ROI.A total of eight of the previous 13 seasons saw punters hit .500 ATS or less.

Since 2005, only 13 different teams have been shut out of 80 percent of NCAA Tournament point-spread bets.Those 13 teams are 2-11 ATS.When you drop that down to 75%+, these teams are 31-44-2 ATS in March Madness.

From west to east

University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) Philadelphia

UCLA faces UCF in the Round of 64 on Friday in Philadelphia. Teams not in Pacific Standard Time are 16-9 ATS playing in the Round of 64 in EST dating back to 2013 and 11-6 ATS dating back to 2021.

High spreads, low totals

Sports teams tend to go overboard with a large spread, the lower the over/under in the game.

Since the 2014 tour, the 15+ pts favorite has a total of…

150 or less: 38-25-1 over (15.5% ROI)

140 or less: 27-12 over (33.1% ROI)

135 or less: 22-8 or more (41.2% ROI)

Current Rivalries: Houston/Idaho, Duke/Siena, UConn/Furman - better for different cleanup spots.

Let's talk about planting

We'll start with an 8 vs. 9 battle.Since 1985, 8 seeds are 77-83 SU, 72-84-4 ATS compared to 9 seeds in the Round of 64.It's the round of 32 where you see the difference.

➤ Results 32 weeks: R32: 8 seeds in 19-75 SU |R32: 9 seed at 10-81 SU.

11 is the new 12

Among teams seeded 10th or higher in the NCAA Tournament, since 2010 in the Round of 64, only 11 seeds have gone above .500 on the money line.In 14 of the last 19 tournaments, 11 seeds have made money on the Round of 64.

Double The Fun

Double-digit seeds have reached the Sweet 16 each since 2008, and at least 10-seeds have won over one-seed in 30 of the last 31 NCAA Tournaments, including 43 of 46 tournaments since seeding began.

We have one in each of the last three tournaments;

2025: Arkansas (10)

2024: NC State (11)

2023: Princeton (15)

Watch PaceDogs run faster

正在寻找一种方法来确定 64 轮比赛中两位数的种子选手来爆冷吗？Let’s look at the No. 11 seeds through the No. 16 seeds since 2005.

The speed of the game is impressive to begin with.Slowest team - 3rd in nation, 67 possessions or less - wins only 23% of R64 games, -13% ROI SU.

Above this pace mark, they've won 24.2% of their games, a 16% increase in ROI. Counting the low total, these high-tempo teams found success in the Round of 64.

(The team's current season pace. Pace is measured in possessions per 48 minutes in the NBA, 40 minutes in the NCAAB. The higher the number, the faster the team's pace.)

Light sports: Cal Baptist, Furman, Idaho, North Dakota State, Penn, Tenn.State, Troy, Right State.

Florida picked up the streak

Round of 16: Florida (-28.5) defeated Norfolk State, 95-69

Round 32: Florida (-9.5) beats UConn, 77-75

Before the Florida Gators last year, the only other team since 1985 to start the NCAA Tournament 0-2 ATS and win it all was Arizona in 1997.

Against bad defense

Underdogs in the Round of 64 tend to have better odds when facing weak defensive teams.When the Dogs face teams in the Round of 64 with a Defensive Efficiency of 95 or higher who are both rested for a week or less, they win 34% of the games, a +29% ROI.A $100 bet would win over $3,500.

Current games: California Baptist, Hawaii, Penn, St. Louis, USF, TCU, VCU

How to bet on the top four

Here's what you need to know about the top four.

➤ The "First Four" began in 2011. There were 112 "First Four" teams and 56 winners.

➤ In 2026, 28 of the 56 winners had 16 places and 28 did not have 16 places.

➤ 27 of the 28 16-seeded teams lost in the Round of 32, with Fairleigh Dickinson beating Purdue as the only other.

Here's how those 28 non-16 seeds fared in the NCAA Tournament:

17 losses in round of 64

6 lost in the round of 16

3 lost in Sweet 16

2 call ann an Final Four (2021 UCLA, 2011 VCU)

➤ Can we make something of the top four (all majors) out of 12 teams to make it to the round of 64?

10 of 12 Round of 64 games split by less than 7 points

Ten of the 12 teams played in the 64th round, making it a huge bid.

10 of the 12 seasons of 64 games were tied

9 of 12 are 11 seeds (2024 Colorado, 2013 La Salle, 2023 Fairleigh Dickinson are exceptions)

Nine of the 12 teams in the NCAA Tournament finished in the top 50 in the RPI.

8 of the 12 teams had a round of 64 with under/over 140 games

7 of the 12 teams won their Round of 64 games by double figures

➤ The No. 4 team has advanced to the Round of 32 in 12 of 14 years, including advancing to the Sweet 16 in five of 14 years.Last year, all four teams lost in the round of 64 for the first time since 2019.

➤ Since the start of First Wednesday in 2011, the public has been 23-32 ATS in that round.The public finished .500 ATS or lower in First Wednesday in 10 of 14 games.

Betting surprises and records

In March Claiming Madness, here are the biggest tournament upsets and betting records set over the years.

Who is the biggest NCAA tournament favorite?

In the seeding era, Duke takes the cake in 1999 when it was a 46-point favorite against Florida A&M.The Blue Devils outscored the Rattlers 99-58, and were unable to close a huge 46 point gap in five points.

Only three teams were tied as favorites by 35 or more points since 1978, and none since 1999 (all listed below).But lately, we've seen some great NCAA Tournament favorites.Since 2005, we've had eight 28+ point favorites in the NCAA Tournament - four coming last year in 2025.

Biggest NCAA Tournament Favorites Since 1978:

|Team |Matchup (ET) |Year/Removed |

|Duke (-46) vs. Florida A&M |1999 Round 64 Duke, 99-58 ||

|Kansas (-36,5) vs Prairie View A&M |1998, 64. voor Kansas, 110-52 ||

|Kansas (-35.5) vs. Jackson State1997, Round of 64 Kansas, 78-64 |||

What are the highest and lowest totals in the NCAA Tournament?

The last two years of the NCAA Tournament have been game-changers when it comes to totals - and it's all Alabama's fault.

Since the 1996 game, we have five games with a total of 170+ and all five have come against the Crimson Tide in the last two years (2024 and 2025 games):

Alabama the last 2 tournaments

In Alabama's nine NCAA Tournament games between 2024 and 2025, they went 5-4, but they finished 5-2 with a total score of 162 or more and 4-2 with a total of 165 or more.

Alabama had only reached 170 points in the NCAA Tournament twice since 1995 before the 2024 and 2025 seasons, and those came against Texas in 1995.

Maryland governs Texas

Oregon vs. Texas

➤ In the 1995 tournament, the Texas Longhorns, under coach Tommy Benders, averaged 93 points per game and totaled more than 170 points.They met Oregon in the round of 64 and won.

The lowest

When it comes to the lowest total, we've only seen one under 110, and that came in 1996 between Princeton and Mississippi State.If we raise the floor a bit, we've only seen two totals of 115 or less since the 2010 NCAA Tournament — at Northern Iowa/Wyoming in 2015/2015 and at Florida in 2012. (114).

Princeton vs.Mississippi State

➤The story of this over/under story is Princeton's defense, which was ranked No. 1 in the nation in 1995-96.1 and allowed under 52 points per game.As a 13-man in the Round of 64, the Tigers beat 4-man UCLA 43-41 and held the Bruins to 38.5% shooting (Princeton shot 37% to win). Then, in the Round of 32, the total ended at 108 vs. Mississippi State, which beat Princeton 63-41.

In the new era of college basketball from a betting perspective since PASPA was repealed in May 2018, Unders are 222-175-4 (55.9%) in the NCAA Tournament.The unders are .500 or better in each of the six tournaments in that stretch:

Meanwhile, we had four teams ranked under 120 overall return to the 2019 NCAA Tournament:

The lowest totals since then were Virginia and Colorado in 2024 and San Diego State and Creighton in 2022, both with a total of 121.

What is the easiest betting win in the NCAA tournament?

What are the easiest (highest margin) wins a bettor has ever beaten between moneylines, against spreads and totals?Let's explore.

Easiest Bets on NCAA Tournament Wins…

| Teams | Year/Result | Bet Type (Record Since) |

|2016 National Semifinals Villanova (-2.5) |VIL, 95-51 covered by 41.5 points |Against Propaganda ('78)|

|1998 round of 16 Kansas (-36.5) |KU, 110-52 beat by 58 points |Moneyline ('78) ||

|2002 Round of 32 Cincinnati / UCLA (139) |105-101 67-point pass |Over ('95) ||

|64 seconds 2017 Round of Dakota Street/Gonzaga (157.5) |66-46 down 45.5 points |Lower ('95) ||

What are the biggest bets during the NCAA Tournament?

Since seeding began in 1978, eleven teams have lost to favorites by 15 points or more in the NCAA Tournament.Let's take a look at the eight who lost -17 or more in that span:

Purdue (-23.5) lost to Fairleigh Dickinson

Missouri (-21) lost to Norfolk State.

Virginia (-20.5) lost to UMBC

South Carolina (-18.5) lost to Coppin State

Arizona (-18.5) lost to Santa Clara

Kentucky (-17.5) lost to St.

Iowa State (-17.5) lost to Hampton

Notre Dame (-17) lost to Arkansas-Little Rock

1978.

➤The perfect journey: Over the same span, here are the teams with the most SU wins without a loss as double-digit favorites: Louisville (16-0), Michigan (15-0), Syracuse (12-0), Arkansas (10-0), Maryland (10-0) and UNLV (10-0).Tennessee (9) and Cincinnati (9) are the next teams.

What are the worst betting losses later in March Madness?

Since the streak began in 1978, seven teams have lost straight in the Sweet 16 or later by 10 points or more.Our latest example came in 2022 when Purdue and Gonzaga lost in the same season.Let's look at the seven defeats.